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Friday, 31 January 2014

Excellent analysis of the Tsunami Debris field.

This is some sriously interesting debris field analyis... whils the thread itself was entitled"
"Re: The Implications of Massive Radiation Contamination of Japan with Radionuclides - VIDEOS inside Please Watch!"

Further down into the thread this piece of priceless research presents itself. The entire thread is well worth a read:

Anonymous entry here


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I just finished the math and the "Japan Tsunami Marine Debris" (JTMD) is 1.45 times the size of Texas...

avg length of longitude Length of Latitude
962.7 km
851.3 km Area of JTMD
907 km 1112 km 1008584 square kilometers
Area of JTMD 1,008,584 km2

Area of Texas 268,820 sq miles (696,241 km²) 696,241 km²
The Area of the JTMD is 1.45 the size of Texas 1.448613339 1.45 times greater than Texas

To find the area of a rectangle, multiply the length by the width. The formula is:
A = L x W, where A is the area, L is the length, W is the width, and • means multiply

I also did the math as to distance/time. The following is something I wrote and posted on several GLP threads...

This is very real folks.

NOAA admits that there are no satellite photos of the JTMD (Japan Tsunami Marine Debris), so your statement is quite correct.

Now the question comes...

Why are there no satellite photos of the JTMD?

Well, I did the math, and guess what?

The last commuter model depiction was on Dec 3, 2013 which was 999 days after the tsunami.

The leading edge of the debris field is located at 6868 miles to the east of Fukushima between the 30th and 40th parallels (it went south a little bit). That's 85% of the way to the west coast of the U.S. and Mexico. It's been travelling a little less than 7 nautical miles a day.

The total distance between Fukushima and the California coast is about 8070 nautical miles.

Using the precise average per day momentum (6.874874875 nautical miles per day) with 1,174 miles to go, the expected date of its arrival in northern California (where it will hit first) is Monday, May 26, 2014.

The frontal assault of the debris field is 950 nautical miles (as per the NOAA graphic). The width of the debris field is 490 miles.

By simple estimation, when the frontal assault lands on U.S. & Mexican soil, it will remain as a mass (at least initially). This means that 1093 miles of shoreline will be impacted by debris that will extend 564 miles out into the pacific ocean.

NOAA claims in the article that the JTMD may break up, but it hasn't broken up very much since March 11, 2011. But even if it does, it only means the that width of the debris field will be less, but the frontal assault will be greater.

So if, for instance, that the JTMD will break up by 50%, fifty percent more shoreline will be impacted, and those numbers are: A frontal assault of 1640 miles against the shoreline with a debris field that is 245 wide.

Simply stated that people will be very surprised if my analysis is accurate to almost any probable degree.....
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19767135 

....Size as in size from a to b.
Distance (from east to west border)...

I.e. Not size as in area or mass. ;)
   Quoting: Anonymous Coward 16824975 

.... The Japan Tsunami Marine Debris (field) is within about 90% of an area delineated by main latitude and longitude lines that appear on globes and Google Earth (when lat/long lines are selected).

Here is an image of the Pacific Ocean with the JTMD and the dashed lines indicating the area where possible impact could occur on land...

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In the NOAA JTMD pdf, you will notice that lat/long lines appear as squares. This means that they are all perfectly straight lines and they do not meet at the poles. This type of map is called a "Mercator Projection." In the image below taken from the NOAA pdf, you will notice the "squared" lat/long lines. About 90% of the debris field fits within the lines of Latitude and Longitude.

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It is important to note that NOAA selected 475 and 950 (nautical) miles as its correlating measuring tool. Most such measuring tools use a decimal like system such as 10-20-30 or 50-100-150. NOAA chose these unusual numbers for an obviously good reason. In the next image you will see that the leading edge of the debris field is precisely 950 (nautical) miles from the nearest land mass.

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Ironically, when the NOAA measuring tool is rotated 90°, the north-south measurement at the longest point is also 950 (nautical) miles.

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To accurately measure a large area on a map using lat/long, a more accurate map projection has to be used. This type of map has to reflect that the lines of longitude have to meet at the poles. This type of map is called a "Conical Projection." It is used by Google Earth, airlines and scientists to name a few.

In the next image, the NOAA “Mercator Projection” was resized to fit perfectly into Google Earth’s “Conical Projection” for greater accuracy. Two portions of the debris field extend outside the boundaries of the Lat/Longs of the greatest part of the debris field.

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In a seemingly crude fashion, the debris areas that extended outside the Lat/Long main debris field were cut from the surrounding areas and were pasted into the main debris field area that can now be easily measured. Here is the image of the modified debris field…

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Now because the line of latitude at the N30° parallel is greater than the N40° parallel, two measurements had to be taken so that the average length between them would result in an area that would form a rectangle.

The Length of Latitude at the N30° parallel was measured at 962.7 km
The Length of Latitude at the N40° parallel was measured at 851.3 km

The average width of these two lines of latitude is 907 km

Measuring the Length of the lines of longitude results between the N30° & N40° = 1112 km

The formula for measuring the area of a rectangle is A=L*W (area = length times width).
The result of 907km times 1112km = 1,008,584 km² (square kilometers).

As per Google: The area of Texas is 696,241 km²
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1,008,584 km² is 1.45 times the area of 696,241 km² …

Therefore, the JTM Debris Field is 1.45 times the area of Texas.
   Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19767135 

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